Texas Senate winner? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-01 ]
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Texas Senate Democratic win holds near 30% odds Kalshi 30%
- The Kalshi contract on a Democratic Texas Senate win sits at 30%, resolved by the United States Congress.
- A two-point Talarico lead in the TSU poll is directionally consistent with the 30% probability, the market sees Texas as competitive but still favors Paxton.
- The market is not fully pricing the poll result; a 49-47 Democratic lead would imply closer to 50% odds if taken at face value.
- The Mississippi Senate race (CM-EVT-6R8L57X0Y4) is 89% likely to be decided by January 4, 2027, while the Georgia race (CM-EVT-1S96Y2D1N4) sits at 96%, both suggest the broader Senate map resolves cleanly, putting Texas in focus as a live contest.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatetx-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senatetx-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senatetx-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G8PMBQ1FF1",
"slug": "senatetx-26",
"question": "Texas Senate winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"texas-politics",
"2027-election",
"senate-race",
"us-elections",
"republican-democrat"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3626704,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}