Will the São Paulo gubernatorial election be held by October 2026? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 25 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another candidate | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc9ae16…bcb5 | ||
| Placeholder 2 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xba60d2…0c57 | ||
| Placeholder 3 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xedb0bc…6f88 | ||
| Placeholder 4 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0b105a…132a | ||
| Placeholder 5 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x303f38…9539 | ||
| Placeholder 6 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3e6a7b…c930 | ||
| Placeholder 7 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb4e716…6fbf | ||
| Placeholder 8 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc6403e…6b9c | ||
| Placeholder 9 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc01674…3251 | ||
| Placeholder 10 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5a9ff4…458f | ||
| Placeholder 11 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc88935…bc58 | ||
| Placeholder 12 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6b4052…4424 | ||
| Placeholder 13 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa92dde…e44e | ||
| Placeholder 14 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe637f3…c9fd | ||
| Placeholder 15 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x115051…4366 | ||
| Placeholder 16 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd73a78…7fca | ||
| Placeholder 17 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbb0e1f…5193 | ||
| Placeholder 18 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x60e921…d476 | ||
| Placeholder 19 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x955562…15d1 | ||
| Placeholder 20 | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa3c7a7…e239 | ||
| Tarcísio de Freitas | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | $11 | $112K | A | 0x7fad7b…bcee | ||
| Fernando Haddad | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $59 | $41K | A | 0xf86b55…baa9 | ||
| Márcio França | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $9.9K | A | 0x923a43…bc1a | ||
| Erika Hilton | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $16K | A | 0xa7f3c5…bc6f | ||
| Kim Kataguiri | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $71K | A | 0x3b4b20…02a9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
platform source field
polymarket.description → www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes sources (3) · stated precedence rule
tse.jus.br committed source Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Márcio França win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/so-paulo-governor-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/so-paulo-governor-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("so-paulo-governor-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WWMKBBXKQ7",
"slug": "so-paulo-governor-election-winner",
"question": "Will the São Paulo gubernatorial election be held by October 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"brazil",
"sao-paulo",
"2026",
"gubernatorial"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 25,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 250517,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tse.jus.br",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tse.jus.br",
"url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}