Will South Africa's annual inflation rate exceed 5% by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-20 (231D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South African inflation be between 4.1% and 4.4% in 2026 | 2027-01-20 | 32.0% | — | $539 | B | 0x33d9d8…dba2 | ||
| Will South African inflation be between 3.5% and 3.8% in 2026 | 2027-01-20 | 7.1% | — | $471 | B | 0x7ddb61…ab15 | ||
| Will South African inflation be between 3.8% and 4.1% in 2026 | 2027-01-20 | 5.6% | — | $661 | B | 0x0c0322…6f9d | ||
| Will South African inflation be between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026 | 2027-01-20 | 3.0% | — | $373 | B | 0x5e2308…f47e | ||
| ≥ 2.6% | 2027-01-20 | 1.9% | — | $267 | B | 0x8d0f8d…b279 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2027-01-20 | 3.8% | — | $5.9K | B | 0x9beb02…3302 | ||
| Will South African inflation be between 2.6% and 2.9% in 2026 | 2027-01-20 | 1.4% | — | $282 | B | 0xb6ea30…a6f1 | ||
| Will South African inflation be between 2.9% and 3.2% in 2026 | 2027-01-20 | 1.3% | — | $369 | B | 0x04b8e4…aca7 | ||
| Will South African inflation be between 3.2% and 3.5% in 2026 | 2027-01-20 | 1.2% | — | $369 | B | 0x443e60…b369 | ||
| Will South African inflation be between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026 | 2027-01-20 | 0.2% | — | $12K | B | 0xdd0d2a…905b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859 recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/south-africa-annual-inflation-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/south-africa-annual-inflation-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("south-africa-annual-inflation-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-R6DPP799Q0",
"slug": "south-africa-annual-inflation-2026",
"question": "Will South Africa's annual inflation rate exceed 5% by the end of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"south-africa",
"inflation",
"economy",
"economic-indicators",
"2026-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21400,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}