Will a Republican win the South Carolina Senate Special Primary? [ resolves 2026-08-11 (19D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 50 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 69.4% | $23K | $149K | C | 0x26a6c7…c003 | ||
| Ralph Norman be the new Republican | 2026-08-11 | 21.0% | $5.6K | $53K | C | 0x708316…15cd | ||
| Russell Fry be the new Republican | 2026-08-11 | 6.0% | $654 | $86K | C | 0xfdd8da…0a85 | ||
| Trey Gowdy be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 5.0% | $481 | $6.4K | C | 0x2c5677…8252 | ||
| Mark Lynch be the new Republican | 2026-08-11 | 1.6% | $3.1K | $15K | C | 0xabe31d…af96 | ||
| Alan Wilson be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.3% | — | $564 | C | 0xf70772…6ceb | ||
| Pamela Evette be the new Republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.2% | $673 | $19K | C | 0x700f9a…527e | ||
| Nancy Mace be the new Republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $7.7K | C | 0x671c0d…631b | ||
| Joe Wilson be the new Republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $1.9K | C | 0x8218a2…f321 | ||
| Paul Dans be the new Republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $1.2K | C | 0xcb3439…f5ff | ||
| William Timmons be the new Republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $976 | C | 0xca0adb…50f4 | ||
| Sheri Biggs be the new Republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $1.2K | C | 0xb06538…d930 | ||
| André Bauer be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $1.2K | C | 0xfb3ac0…06ae | ||
| Scott Bessent be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | — | $1.6K | C | 0x98a218…c392 | ||
| Person G be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x46e7ef…772c | ||
| Person H be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1ec5bc…f40d | ||
| Person I be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1f8495…30b7 | ||
| Person J be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfa8d1e…5c7d | ||
| Person K be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf420d0…317e | ||
| Person L be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc13c85…4694 | ||
| Person M be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x02b2a6…4b8a | ||
| Person N be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x19e094…3c1b | ||
| Person O be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe41219…2d8f | ||
| Person P be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x67b9f4…5dc0 | ||
| Person Q be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x646f5b…a2cf | ||
| Person R be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8fd55e…c84d | ||
| Person S be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x615976…dd62 | ||
| Person T be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1cb214…7613 | ||
| Person U be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2697bf…81cb | ||
| Person V be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc1a2d6…ab5d | ||
| Person W be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfb2cd9…04f9 | ||
| Person X be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2a8a53…c168 | ||
| Person Y be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x28414d…0365 | ||
| Person Z be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x571915…a7a0 | ||
| Person AA be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x72b96d…c239 | ||
| Person AB be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x26ac2f…93fb | ||
| Person AC be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa48d38…151b | ||
| Person AD be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xef5264…a03b | ||
| Person AE be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x125b40…36fa | ||
| Person AF be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9243d6…db3c | ||
| Person AG be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0389f3…29d4 | ||
| Person AH be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfb72d0…b605 | ||
| Person AI be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x91fe0d…c5e3 | ||
| Person AJ be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x45930b…9897 | ||
| Person AK be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc29d9c…39c0 | ||
| Person AL be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3e7605…5937 | ||
| Person AM be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x548e57…7f73 | ||
| Person AN be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x223bdf…a770 | ||
| Person AO be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x377509…bc98 | ||
| Someone else be the new republican | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa42491…05e9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff.
If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.
If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- the South Carolina Republican party from rules text · editorial
- an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8LY01KMC58",
"slug": "south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676",
"question": "Will a Republican win the South Carolina Senate Special Primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-senate",
"south-carolina",
"2026",
"primary"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 50,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 345843,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the South Carolina Republican party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}