CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will a Republican win the South Carolina Senate Special Primary? [ resolves 2026-08-11 (19D) ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 50 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican 2026-08-11 69.4%
$23K $149K
C 0x26a6c7…c003
Ralph Norman be the new Republican 2026-08-11 21.0%
$5.6K $53K
C 0x708316…15cd
Russell Fry be the new Republican 2026-08-11 6.0%
$654 $86K
C 0xfdd8da…0a85
Trey Gowdy be the new republican 2026-08-11 5.0%
$481 $6.4K
C 0x2c5677…8252
Mark Lynch be the new Republican 2026-08-11 1.6%
$3.1K $15K
C 0xabe31d…af96
Alan Wilson be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.3%
$564
C 0xf70772…6ceb
Pamela Evette be the new Republican 2026-08-11 0.2%
$673 $19K
C 0x700f9a…527e
Nancy Mace be the new Republican 2026-08-11 0.1%
$7.7K
C 0x671c0d…631b
Joe Wilson be the new Republican 2026-08-11 0.1%
$1.9K
C 0x8218a2…f321
Paul Dans be the new Republican 2026-08-11 0.1%
$1.2K
C 0xcb3439…f5ff
William Timmons be the new Republican 2026-08-11 0.1%
$976
C 0xca0adb…50f4
Sheri Biggs be the new Republican 2026-08-11 0.1%
$1.2K
C 0xb06538…d930
André Bauer be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.1%
$1.2K
C 0xfb3ac0…06ae
Scott Bessent be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.1%
$1.6K
C 0x98a218…c392
Person G be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x46e7ef…772c
Person H be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x1ec5bc…f40d
Person I be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x1f8495…30b7
Person J be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xfa8d1e…5c7d
Person K be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xf420d0…317e
Person L be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xc13c85…4694
Person M be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x02b2a6…4b8a
Person N be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x19e094…3c1b
Person O be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xe41219…2d8f
Person P be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x67b9f4…5dc0
Person Q be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x646f5b…a2cf
Person R be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x8fd55e…c84d
Person S be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x615976…dd62
Person T be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x1cb214…7613
Person U be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x2697bf…81cb
Person V be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xc1a2d6…ab5d
Person W be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xfb2cd9…04f9
Person X be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x2a8a53…c168
Person Y be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x28414d…0365
Person Z be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x571915…a7a0
Person AA be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x72b96d…c239
Person AB be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x26ac2f…93fb
Person AC be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xa48d38…151b
Person AD be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xef5264…a03b
Person AE be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x125b40…36fa
Person AF be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x9243d6…db3c
Person AG be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x0389f3…29d4
Person AH be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xfb72d0…b605
Person AI be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x91fe0d…c5e3
Person AJ be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x45930b…9897
Person AK be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xc29d9c…39c0
Person AL be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x3e7605…5937
Person AM be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x548e57…7f73
Person AN be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x223bdf…a770
Person AO be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0x377509…bc98
Someone else be the new republican 2026-08-11 0.0%
C 0xa42491…05e9
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers uncommitted not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 50 markets · share this text
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above
sources (2)
  • the South Carolina Republican party from rules text · editorial
  • an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8LY01KMC58",
  "slug": "south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676",
  "question": "Will a Republican win the South Carolina Senate Special Primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "us-senate",
    "south-carolina",
    "2026",
    "primary"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 50,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 345843,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 48,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "the South Carolina Republican party",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →