SpaceX IPO closing market cap, 2027 [ resolves 2027-12-31 (543D) ]

polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 16 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ $1,000,000,000,000	2027-12-31	99.9%	$342K	$1.11M	A	`0xfacf82…adbf`
≥ $1,200,000,000,000	2027-12-31	99.8%	$159K	$668K	A	`0x1f31af…8f38`
≥ $1,400,000,000,000	2027-12-31	99.6%	$187K	$661K	A	`0x611337…6388`
≥ $1,600,000,000,000	2027-12-31	99.3%	$305K	$920K	A	`0xe5ffcf…7f3e`
≥ $1,800,000,000,000	2027-12-31	100.0%	$727K	$1.80M	A	`0xd4d841…aec2`
≥ $2,000,000,000,000	2027-12-31	100.0%	$926K	$2.16M	A	`0x661903…9c59`
≥ $2,200,000,000,000	2027-12-31	0.0%	$722K	$1.30M	A	`0x93f2e1…0805`
≥ $2,400,000,000,000	2027-12-31	0.0%	$696K	$1.65M	A	`0xf47178…f897`
≥ $2,600,000,000,000	2027-12-31	7.8%	$371K	$1.08M	A	`0x9319e7…7531`
≥ $2,800,000,000,000	2027-12-31	3.8%	$213K	$714K	A	`0x659dde…7fac`
≥ $3,000,000,000,000	2027-12-31	0.6%	$476K	$2.37M	A	`0x3f4b9f…566f`
≥ $3,200,000,000,000	2027-12-31	1.6%	$162K	$533K	A	`0x132ff6…54e1`
≥ $3,400,000,000,000	2027-12-31	0.6%	$105K	$232K	A	`0xde71d2…22f4`
≥ $3,600,000,000,000	2027-12-31	0.4%	$90K	$193K	A	`0x273204…af63`
≥ $3,800,000,000,000	2027-12-31	0.5%	$66K	$244K	A	`0x75522f…b769`
≥ $4,000,000,000,000	2027-12-31	0.0%	$429K	$897K	A	`0x2576d8…eb07`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 16 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (1) · stated precedence rule

another reliable source from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	polymarket	`2027-12-31`	`100%`
YES	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	polymarket	`2027-12-31`	`100%`
NO	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	polymarket	`2027-12-31`	`0%`
NO	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	polymarket	`2027-12-31`	`0%`
NO	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	polymarket	`2027-12-31`	`0%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (5 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-06-26T10:48:42+00:00 volume-spike
Market discounts a $4T SpaceX IPO as implausible 0% · $429K 24h
- Polymarket at 0%, no realistic probability assigned to SpaceX closing IPO above $4T.
- 24h volume $429K is 48% of all-time; capital is actively confirming the ceiling, not speculating.
- Flow likely reflects arb sellers closing out any residual long positions ahead of resolution.
- With consensus around $2T, $2.2T, a $4T close would require an unprecedented demand shock.
2026-06-26T10:48:42+00:00 volume-spike
Heavy flows defend a $2T SpaceX IPO floor 93% · $926K 24h
- Polymarket at 93%, strong consensus that SpaceX closes IPO above $2T.
- 24h volume $926K is 43% of all-time; largest single-strike volume in the SpaceX cluster today.
- Near-certainty pricing suggests anchor valuation is well-supported by pre-IPO secondary and bookbuild signals.
- Resolution on IPO closing market cap; this strike functions as a near-riskless long in the cluster.
2026-06-26T10:48:42+00:00 volume-spike
SpaceX $2.4T target sits in contested tail territory 21% · $696K 24h
- Polymarket at 21%, market assigns meaningful but minority odds to a $2.4T closing valuation.
- 24h volume $696K is 42% of all-time; active two-way flow signals genuine directional disagreement.
- At 21%, this strike captures bull-case positioning for investors expecting demand to overwhelm bookbuild guidance.
- Spread between $2.2T at 67% and $2.4T at 21% implies a steep implied valuation distribution drop-off.
2026-06-26T10:48:42+00:00 volume-spike
SpaceX IPO valuation battle sits squarely at $2.2T 67% · $722K 24h
- Polymarket at 67%, majority of capital expects closing cap to clear $2.2T threshold.
- 24h volume $722K is 56% of all-time; pricing discovery around this strike is accelerating.
- Part of a multi-strike cluster; $2.2T is the key contested level where confidence breaks from near-certainty.
- Resolution tied to SpaceX IPO closing print, making this the marginal-price discovery contract.
2026-06-26T10:48:42+00:00 volume-spike
Traders stack near-certainty on $1.8T SpaceX floor 98% · $727K 24h
- Polymarket at 98%, market has all but ruled out a sub-$1.8T SpaceX IPO close.
- 24h volume $727K is 40% of all-time; significant capital confirming the downside floor.
- Flow here is likely hedgers and arb desks collateralizing positions in the higher-strike contracts.
- Near-certain resolution unless a major IPO structural disruption materializes before close.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FDQNXYNKT6",
  "slug": "spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above",
  "question": "SpaceX IPO closing market cap, 2027",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "spacex-ipo",
    "tech",
    "market-cap",
    "2027",
    "valuation"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 16,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 16526302,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 85,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "another reliable source",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →