Will SpaceX conduct its initial public offering by December 31, 2025? [ resolves 2026-06-29 (26D) ]
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 86.0% | $125 | $2.6K | C | 0x7bba51…eeb9 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 18, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 6.9% | $40 | $1.3K | C | 0x5a7a68…c429 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 15, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 6.4% | $226 | $1.1K | C | 0x30011a…0351 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 17, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 4.1% | $276 | $1.3K | C | 0x867d12…0b60 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later | 2026-06-29 | 3.6% | $40 | $898 | C | 0x731bf4…1ca0 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 16, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 1.7% | $340 | $1.0K | C | 0x1a8813…2833 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 24, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 1.1% | $36 | $895 | C | 0xf3ee22…1184 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 4, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 1.0% | $394 | $1.1K | C | 0xe6b354…0ed6 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 25, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.9% | $52 | $986 | C | 0x4bb3c8…a21b | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.9% | $720 | $1.6K | C | 0x68c931…6bd8 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 22, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.7% | $40 | $1.9K | C | 0xaa233f…9331 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 26, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.4% | $46 | $829 | C | 0x383531…7fd4 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 29, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.4% | $40 | $946 | C | 0x8dd498…2ea8 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 23, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.3% | $46 | $447 | C | 0x262dc7…4878 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.3% | $46 | $996 | C | 0xa45ae7…f1a0 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 8, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.2% | $46 | $790 | C | 0x204e1a…1cc9 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 3, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.2% | — | $1.6K | C | 0x701532…fbb9 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 10, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.2% | $30 | $809 | C | 0xf1a22b…d416 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 9, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.2% | $30 | $932 | C | 0x921020…30de | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 1, 2026 or earlier | 2026-06-29 | 0.1% | — | $775 | C | 0x744fa5…ef38 | ||
| Will SpaceX IPO on June 2, 2026 | 2026-06-29 | 0.1% | — | $906 | C | 0x8b9bff…8362 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on the date, in Eastern Time, that SpaceX launches its Initial Public Offering (IPO).
For the purposes of this market, an IPO refers to the first public sale of shares by the listed company on a recognized stock exchange.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official listing page of the relevant exchange, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spacex-ipo-date-182/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spacex-ipo-date-182.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("spacex-ipo-date-182") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MJJFTTGCV5",
"slug": "spacex-ipo-date-182",
"question": "Will SpaceX conduct its initial public offering by December 31, 2025?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"finance",
"spacex",
"ipo",
"2026",
"equity-markets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23845,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}