Will SpaceX be officially added to the S&P 500 in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 3.3% | — | $18K | B | 0xdfe1ba…71fb |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release sources (3) · single authority
- spglobal.com venue-listed
- S&P Global Inc. source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spacex-ipo-officially-added-to-sp-500-in-2026-20260608202834697/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spacex-ipo-officially-added-to-sp-500-in-2026-20260608202834697 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("spacex-ipo-officially-added-to-sp-500-in-2026-20260608202834697") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HBGW6VZXN6",
"slug": "spacex-ipo-officially-added-to-sp-500-in-2026-20260608202834697",
"question": "Will SpaceX be officially added to the S&P 500 in 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"finance",
"sp-500",
"spacex",
"ipo",
"index-inclusion"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18330,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 76,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "S&P Global Inc.",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "spglobal.com",
"url": "https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "S&P Global Inc.",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}