Will SpaceX conduct an initial public offering? [ resolved 2026-06-13 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome
polymarket 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Jurvetson | 2026-06-13 | 99.9% | $1.8K | $2.7K | C | 0xbe4cef…6189 | ||
| Gwynne Shotwell | 2026-06-13 | 99.9% | $29K | $33K | C | 0x820002…fece | ||
| Luke Nosek | 2026-06-13 | 99.6% | $1.8K | $3.4K | C | 0xba3274…066a | ||
| Bret Johnsen | 2026-06-13 | 96.8% | $3.9K | $5.2K | C | 0x660c5d…1640 | ||
| Brian Bjelde | 2026-06-13 | 80.0% | $3.1K | $6.3K | C | 0x33194e…1c19 | ||
| Jonathan Hofeller | 2026-06-13 | 9.0% | $1.5K | $5.3K | C | 0x9bd5ff…02f8 | ||
| Antonio Gracias | 2026-06-13 | 5.0% | $3.3K | $10K | C | 0x2c91df…5ed8 | ||
| Mark Juncosa | 2026-06-13 | 3.0% | $5.0K | $8.8K | C | 0xfde22a…104d | ||
| X Æ A-Xii | 2026-06-13 | 1.7% | $8.2K | $17K | C | 0x1a6ccf…c6e1 | ||
| Grimes | 2026-06-13 | 1.5% | $2.4K | $6.4K | C | 0x8dfbd9…87fb | ||
| Elon Musk | 2026-06-13 | 1.2% | $53K | $58K | C | 0xb495d8…56c9 | ||
| Kimbal Musk | 2026-06-13 | 0.8% | $2.3K | $4.1K | C | 0x1c5293…4ffc | ||
| Donald Trump | 2026-06-13 | 0.5% | $71K | $98K | C | 0x5ef477…a875 | ||
| Vivian Wilson | 2026-06-13 | 0.2% | $2.3K | $2.6K | C | 0xac0980…5038 | ||
| Shivon Zilis | 2026-06-13 | 0.2% | $2.6K | $8.8K | C | 0xe1b808…d7d5 | ||
| Ashley St. Clair | 2026-06-13 | 0.1% | $1.6K | $1.8K | C | 0xb60838…4461 | ||
| Hasan Piker | 2026-06-13 | 0.1% | $2.9K | $3.8K | C | 0xbd4b5b…c584 | ||
| Barron Trump | 2026-06-13 | 0.1% | $15K | $21K | C | 0x20cb03…aaf8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
Bell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to "No" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.
A qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.
Being “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.
The primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-12. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
"slug": "spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949",
"question": "Will SpaceX conduct an initial public offering?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"spacex-ipo",
"bell-ceremony",
"2026",
"tech",
"finance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 296204,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}