Will SpaceX conduct an IPO with a Bell Ceremony? [ resolved 2026-06-13 ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Jurvetson | 2026-06-13 | 100.0% | $1.8K | $2.7K | C | 0xbe4cef…6189 | ||
| Gwynne Shotwell | 2026-06-13 | 100.0% | $29K | $33K | C | 0x820002…fece | ||
| Bret Johnsen | 2026-06-13 | 100.0% | $3.9K | $5.2K | C | 0x660c5d…1640 | ||
| Brian Bjelde | 2026-06-13 | 100.0% | $3.1K | $6.3K | C | 0x33194e…1c19 | ||
| Luke Nosek | 2026-06-13 | 100.0% | $1.8K | $3.4K | C | 0xba3274…066a | ||
| Jonathan Hofeller | 2026-06-13 | 2.2% | $1.5K | $5.3K | C | 0x9bd5ff…02f8 | ||
| Grimes | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $2.4K | $6.4K | C | 0x8dfbd9…87fb | ||
| Ashley St. Clair | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $1.6K | $1.8K | C | 0xb60838…4461 | ||
| Vivian Wilson | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $2.3K | $2.6K | C | 0xac0980…5038 | ||
| Mark Juncosa | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $5.0K | $8.8K | C | 0xfde22a…104d | ||
| Elon Musk | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $53K | $58K | C | 0xb495d8…56c9 | ||
| Shivon Zilis | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $2.6K | $8.8K | C | 0xe1b808…d7d5 | ||
| Antonio Gracias | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $3.3K | $10K | C | 0x2c91df…5ed8 | ||
| X Æ A-Xii | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $8.2K | $17K | C | 0x1a6ccf…c6e1 | ||
| Donald Trump | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $71K | $98K | C | 0x5ef477…a875 | ||
| Hasan Piker | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $2.9K | $3.8K | C | 0xbd4b5b…c584 | ||
| Kimbal Musk | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $2.3K | $4.1K | C | 0x1c5293…4ffc | ||
| Barron Trump | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $15K | $21K | C | 0x20cb03…aaf8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if listed individual is on-stage at a bell ceremony on SpaceX’s first day of trading. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no SpaceX IPO or qualifying bell ceremony occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
Bell-ringing ceremonies which take place outside of SpaceX's first day of trading will not be considered. This market will resolve to "No" if SpaceX's IPO and first day of trading occur with no qualifying bell ceremony.
A qualifying ceremony must be in-person at the venue of SpaceX's primary exchange. The purpose of the ceremony must be to commemorate the opening or closing of the regular trading session of SpaceX’s primary exchange on SpaceX's first day of trading.
Being “on-stage” is defined as being in physical attendance and on the primary stage of the venue during any part of the event. Any virtual or off-stage appearances (e.g., as a member of the audience) will not count.
The primary resolution source will be photo and video; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- photo and video from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-07-27 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| YES | Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 100% |
| NO | Will Hasan Piker be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ashley St. Clair be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Vivian Wilson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
| YES | Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 100% |
| YES | Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 100% |
| YES | Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 100% |
| YES | Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (17 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BQQ4F6H5C8",
"slug": "spacex-ipo-who-will-be-on-stage-at-the-bell-ceremony-20260609030156949",
"question": "Will SpaceX conduct an IPO with a Bell Ceremony?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"spacex-ipo",
"bell-ceremony",
"2026",
"tech",
"finance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 296204,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "photo and video",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}