Will SpaceX conduct Starship Flight Test 14? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-06 ]
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31 | 2026-08-31 | 34.0% | $1.2K | $3.7K | C | 0x80cc72…3957 | ||
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30 | 2026-09-30 | 92.0% | $861 | $3.5K | C | 0x0eb753…8570 | ||
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31 | 2026-10-31 | 96.0% | $21 | $21 | C | 0xda1990…b61c | ||
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode | 2027-06-30 | 87.0% | $2.2K | $2.2K | C | 0xc98841…122d | ||
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship | 2027-06-30 | 46.0% | $1.5K | $1.9K | C | 0x2c9195…7e06 | ||
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful… | 2027-06-30 | 16.0% | $1 | $229 | C | 0x9ced02…2b12 | ||
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster | 2027-06-30 | 5.7% | $524 | $782 | C | 0x57f701…ca5f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX sources (3)
- youtube.com venue-listed
- official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX) from rules text · editorial
- secondary video feeds and/or written reports from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spacex-starship-flight-test-14/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spacex-starship-flight-test-14 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("spacex-starship-flight-test-14") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-G5V3MX3YS1",
"slug": "spacex-starship-flight-test-14",
"question": "Will SpaceX conduct Starship Flight Test 14?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"spacex",
"starship",
"space-exploration",
"launch-timeline",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12437,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "youtube.com",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "secondary video feeds and/or written reports",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}