Will SpaceX Starship achieve full reusability before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 42.0% | — | $112K | C | 0x0a1b55…6e7d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | x.com | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date.
The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M7YDSVMYD7",
"slug": "spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2027",
"question": "Will SpaceX Starship achieve full reusability before 2027?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"spacex",
"starship",
"reusability",
"aerospace",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 111579,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 42,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "x.com",
"resolution_source_url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}