Will SpaceX Starship achieve full reusability before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027	2026-12-31	34.0%		—	$112K		C	`0x0a1b55…6e7d`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	x.com	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 1 market · share this text

On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster. For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date. The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2027/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2027.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2027")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M7YDSVMYD7",
  "slug": "spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2027",
  "question": "Will SpaceX Starship achieve full reusability before 2027?",
  "category": "companies",
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "spacex",
    "starship",
    "reusability",
    "aerospace",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 111579,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 39,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "x.com",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →