Will sports prediction markets be taxed as gambling by December 31, 2025? [ resolves 2027-04-16 (317D) ]
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling | 2027-04-16 | 36.0% | $4.7K | $33K | B | 0x3a7fe8…e2a3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Department Of The Treasury | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the IRS or U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes formal guidance classifying losses from CFTC-regulated sports event contracts as subject to the 90% loss cap under Section 165(d) of the Internal Revenue Code, as amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, sports event contracts are contracts whose payoff is determined by the outcome, score, or statistical result of an athletic competition listed on a CFTC-designated contract market or swap execution facility.
Qualifying guidance must be published in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or the Federal Register as a Revenue Ruling, Revenue Procedure, IRS Notice, IRS Announcement, final or temporary Treasury Regulation, or proposed Treasury Regulation that remains published without withdrawal for at least 30 calendar days after its Federal Register publication date. Guidance qualifies if it expressly applies Section 165(d) to such contracts or classifies them as wagering transactions for federal income tax purposes. Guidance classifying sports event contracts as wagering solely for purposes of Section 4401, Section 6041, Section 3402(q), or other Code sections that do not bear on the deductibility of losses does not qualify. Non-qualifying actions include Private Letter Rulings, Chief Counsel Advice, Tax Court decisions, IRS official statements, Congressional testimony, and web-based publications not appearing in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or Federal Register. A final and non-appealable decision of the U.S. Supreme Court holding that CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to Section 165(d) also qualifies for resolution.
This market will resolve to "No" if qualifying guidance is withdrawn, modified into non-qualifying form, or superseded by non-qualifying guidance before April 15, 2027; if federal legislation repeals Section 165(d) or exempts CFTC-regulated sports event contracts from its application; if federal legislation establishes a tax treatment for sports event contracts incompatible with Section 165(d) prior to qualifying guidance being issued; or if the CFTC prohibits the listing of sports event contracts on all CFTC-designated contract markets before any qualifying guidance is issued.
The resolution source for this market is the Internal Revenue Bulletin (irs.gov/irb) and the Federal Register (federalregister.gov).
platform source field
polymarket.resolution_source → "Department Of The Treasury" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/sports-prediction-markets-taxed-as-gambling/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/sports-prediction-markets-taxed-as-gambling.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("sports-prediction-markets-taxed-as-gambling") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8FM8MZQR13",
"slug": "sports-prediction-markets-taxed-as-gambling",
"question": "Will sports prediction markets be taxed as gambling by December 31, 2025?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"sports",
"politics",
"tax-policy",
"gambling-regulation",
"2027",
"us-legislation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 32942,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Department Of The Treasury",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}