Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $6,500-$7,000 | 2026-12-31 | 15.0% | — | $3.5K | C | 0x59c232…d567 | ||
| ≤ $6,000 | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | — | $19K | C | 0xd9bdd7…0241 | ||
| ≥ $8,000 | 2026-12-31 | 29.0% | — | $3.5K | C | 0xfbc623…45df | ||
| $7,000-$7,500 | 2026-12-31 | 24.0% | — | $1.9K | C | 0x7988f3…d4a1 | ||
| $7,500-$8,000 | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | — | $3.1K | C | 0xd8fd9e…1a6e | ||
| $6,000-$6,500 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $1.9K | C | 0xffc097…a301 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history sources (3) · single authority
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history venue-listed
- finance.yahoo.com venue-listed
- Yahoo Finance source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spx-close-dec-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spx-close-dec-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("spx-close-dec-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-41B5F289Y1",
"slug": "spx-close-dec-2026",
"question": "Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"sp-500",
"spx",
"index-level",
"year-end-2026",
"us-equities"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 33182,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history",
"resolution_source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Yahoo Finance",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "finance.yahoo.com",
"url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Yahoo Finance",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}