Will the S&P 500 (SPX) open up on August 4? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (0D) ]
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 4?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 4 | 2026-08-04 | 99.9% | $13K | $13K | C | 0xf901d4…508c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on August 4 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on August 4 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spx-opens-up-or-down-on-august-4-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spx-opens-up-or-down-on-august-4-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("spx-opens-up-or-down-on-august-4-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YWVP6NQ8Z9",
"slug": "spx-opens-up-or-down-on-august-4-2026",
"question": "Will the S&P 500 (SPX) open up on August 4?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"spx",
"finance",
"market-open",
"daily-movement",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13418,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Wall Street Journal",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "wsj.com",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "wsj.com",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "wsj.com",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Wall Street Journal",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "S&P 500 Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}