USDC depeg by December 31, 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1% | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | — | — | C | 0x6ce9eb…c8a4 | ||
| USD1 | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $16K | C | 0x26bd52…b18e | ||
| USD0 | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $837 | C | 0x923a8c…b095 | ||
| USDTb | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $707 | C | 0xfa1235…aeaa | ||
| USDS | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $756 | C | 0x98bfad…a9c8 | ||
| ≤ 1% | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $3.4K | C | 0xb7a2f1…0291 | ||
| ≤ 1% | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $1.5K | C | 0x47c7a3…fac1 | ||
| USDE | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $8.6K | C | 0xf81d31…d45a | ||
| PYUSD | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $600 | C | 0x3fb871…91cd | ||
| USDC | 2027-01-01 | 1.2% | — | $268K | C | 0x37721f…98fb |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Pyth 1-minute candles for USDC-USD for any 24-hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 27 Oct ’25 15:00 and 31 Dec ’26 23:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower). A 24-hour period of USDC below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2026 will count.
The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the USDC-USD “High” prices currently available at https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSDCUSD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Pyth USDC-USD. If Pyth stops having the necessary USDC information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USDC was below 98 cents for 24 hours or more may be used to resolve this market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSDCUSD sources (3) · single authority
tradingview.com committed source TradingView from rules text https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSDCUSD from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | USR depeg by December 31? | polymarket | 2026-03-23 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("stablecoins-depeg-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-08TR64F649",
"slug": "stablecoins-depeg-before-2027",
"question": "USDC depeg by December 31, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"stablecoins",
"depegging",
"market-stability",
"2027",
"multi-asset"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 299762,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSDCUSD",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tradingview.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tradingview.com",
"url": "https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSDCUSD",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "TradingView",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSDCUSD",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}