Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $221K | $7.05M | A | 0x5c79df…91cc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 sources (3) · single authority
portwatch.imf.org venue-listed IMF Portwatch committed source https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 from rules text
recent wire items
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays near 12 percent Polymarket 12%
- The Polymarket prediction market prices only 12% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
- The Houthi escalation story is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing: a normal-traffic outcome by year-end is treated as a long shot.
- Story 22 reported Iran saying the Strait is reopening, yet a 12% Polymarket probability shows the market is not treating that statement as credible or durable.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; the 88% probability of continued disruption through year-end carries direct implications for oil price and shipping cost markets.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 14%
- Polymarket puts only 14% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
- Diplomatic activity around Iran continues; the 14% Polymarket read suggests markets treat a full traffic normalization by year-end as unlikely despite talks.
- Story 24 reports Iran flagged the Strait as reopening with ceasefire conditions still on the table; the 14% odds indicate markets are not pricing that signal as durable.
- The Kalshi contract on Trump visiting Iran (CM-EVT-V9QGT2SSP7) sits at just 2%, suggesting no direct US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough is priced in to support normalization.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays unlikely Polymarket 12%
- Polymarket prices 12% odds on Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
- Record-high attack reports are consistent with this low probability; the market is not pricing a near-term resolution despite Iran's stated openness to talks.
- AP's reporting on uneven but accumulating retail price impacts from the Iran war (Story 10) provides a real-economy backdrop: the market's 12% implies continued disruption through year-end.
- Resolution is via Polymarket's UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic is the key definitional edge case that the oracle will need to adjudicate.
- Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 12%
- Polymarket prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at just 12%, a strong long-shot read.
- Two ships sunk in 24 hours and record daily attack levels are fully consistent with this deeply discounted resolution probability.
- The 88% implied probability of continued disruption through year-end represents a significant geopolitical risk premium priced into energy transit markets.
- The Kalshi ladder on gas prices (CM-EVT-3H5LTWXVM6) showing 50% odds above $4.25 is a correlated cross-market signal that supply disruptions are baked in.
- Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays near 13% Polymarket 13%
- Polymarket prices normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic by December 31 at just 13%.
- Al Jazeera reports attacks are at their worst since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, fully consistent with the market's heavy skepticism on a near-term reopening.
- A separate Kalshi contract puts only 2% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, reinforcing the market's view that diplomatic normalization is far off.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; 'normal' traffic likely requires a sustained, verifiable return to pre-conflict transit volumes through the strait.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"energy-security",
"shipping-logistics",
"2026",
"iran-sanctions"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7053960,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}