Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 26.0% | $221K | $7.05M | A | 0x5c79df…91cc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 sources (3) · single authority
portwatch.imf.org venue-listed IMF Portwatch committed source https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 from rules text
recent wire items
- Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays below 25 percent Polymarket 26%
- Polymarket prices 26% odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.
- US intelligence reporting that Iran views Hormuz as leverage and is weighing escalation is consistent with the sub-30% pricing, the market is not buying a near-term resolution.
- At 26%, the market is treating Hormuz normalization as a long shot for 2026, implying persistent disruption risk in global energy shipping lanes.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic levels will need a clear, verifiable benchmark, traders should watch how the oracle defines the baseline before the December deadline.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end below 50% Polymarket 27%
- Polymarket puts only 27% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026, a strong long-shot read.
- Active Iran-US military exchanges and VP Vance's ultimatum framing suggest further disruption, consistent with the below-30% pricing.
- Iran's strikes on US bases in Kuwait and the UAE, alongside Hormuz attack warnings, make near-term normalization of shipping traffic appear unlikely to the market.
- Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic likely benchmarked to pre-conflict transit levels, making the resolution bar concrete but potentially disputed.
- Strait of Hormuz normal traffic by year-end stays below 30% Polymarket 27%
- The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 27%, reflecting the market's skepticism about near-term de-escalation.
- Active US-Iran military exchanges, including Iranian attacks on US bases in Kuwait, are consistent with the market's sub-30% probability on restored waterway traffic.
- Trump's claim that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz stands in tension with Iran's continued ability to strike regional targets, which the 27% price reflects.
- Resolution depends on an independently verified return to normal Strait of Hormuz transit volumes by December 31, 2026, with no named resolution source specified.
- Strait of Hormuz normal traffic by year-end holds below 30% Polymarket 26%
- The Polymarket contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 26%, pricing the outcome as unlikely through year-end.
- Fresh US-Iran military exchanges break a month-long lull and are directly hostile to any near-term normalization of the Strait, the 26% is consistent with renewed escalation.
- Iran attacks on Gulf neighbors (Story 20) and US bases in Jordan (Story 27) compound the disruption risk, reinforcing the below-30% positioning.
- Resolution via UMA oracle on whether Hormuz transit volumes return to pre-conflict norms by December 31; the contract does not define a specific vessel-count threshold publicly.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 28%
- Polymarket puts just 28% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, reflecting persistent disruption risk.
- Fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian launchers in the strait and Iranian retaliatory missile fire at U.S. bases in Jordan are consistent with the market's skeptical pricing on a near-term resolution.
- The 72% probability of continued disruption through year-end implies markets see the conflict as likely to drag well beyond the current exchange of strikes.
- Resolution via UMA oracle requires a verifiable return to normal transit volumes; active hostilities make that threshold extremely difficult to satisfy within four months.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"energy-security",
"shipping-logistics",
"2026",
"iran-sanctions"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7053960,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}