Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 55.0% | $290K | $1.25M | A | 0x5c79df…91cc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 sources (2) · single authority
- portwatch.imf.org venue-listed
- IMF Portwatch source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Hormuz traffic normalization by year-end holds near even odds Polymarket 55%
- Polymarket prices 55% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
- Active tanker attacks and ongoing US strikes present a concrete downside to normalization, yet the market is near coin-flip, consistent with Iran's reported diplomatic signaling.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio's diplomatic overtures create a credible off-ramp that the market is partially pricing into the 55% figure.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; normal traffic likely requires both a cessation of IRGC interdiction and US acknowledgment of restored shipping lanes.
- Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end holds near even odds Polymarket 56%
- Polymarket prices a 56% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.
- Ten consecutive nights of US strikes and active IRGC tanker attacks have not pushed the contract below 50%; the market leans toward eventual resolution.
- The 56% reading implies the market is treating current escalation as a path toward negotiated reopening rather than permanent disruption, though conviction is limited.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic must be verifiable; the Iran enrichment deal contract at 21% (Story 20) highlights the gap between tactical and diplomatic resolution odds.
- Hormuz normalization by year-end sits near even odds amid escalation Polymarket 51%
- Polymarket prices the December 31 Hormuz normalization contract at 51%, just above coin-flip odds, reflecting deep uncertainty about resolution timing.
- Fresh US airstrikes on IRGC targets and Iran's suspension of its Islamabad MoU after reporting 50 killed are consistent with a market that has not priced in near-term de-escalation.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-4J73Y3RD96) puts only 1% on Hormuz returning to normal by July 31, confirming the market sees no near-term resolution.
- The 50-percentage-point gap between the July 31 (1%) and December 31 (51%) contracts implies the market concentrates resolution probability heavily in Q4 2026.
- Strait of Hormuz reopening by year-end wavers amid escalation Polymarket 57%
- Polymarket prices a 57% chance Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.
- Active US-Iran military exchange, including US naval blockade enforcement and Iranian missile retaliation, is directly consistent with a near-coin-flip on Hormuz normalization.
- Iran explicitly naming the Strait a 'red line' raises the stakes for the December resolution window.
- A separate Polymarket contract prices only 24% on a full US invasion of Iran, suggesting markets see escalation as bounded, not regime-ending.
- Hormuz reopening by year-end holds near coin-flip pricing Polymarket 51%
- Polymarket puts 51% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, a near coin-flip despite active US-Iran military exchange.
- US strikes expanding into northern Iran and blockade enforcement are consistent with a market pricing deep uncertainty, not a near-term resolution.
- Polymarket separately prices only 1% on Hormuz normalization by July 31, showing the market sees virtually no short-term off-ramp from the conflict.
- Kalshi at 7% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran underscores how far markets place any diplomatic normalization.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"energy-markets",
"shipping-logistics",
"iran-sanctions",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1247868,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}