Will a majority of Swiss voters approve the referendum question on the ballot in June? [ resolves 2026-06-14 (11D) ]
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
polymarket 2 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s… | 2026-06-14 | 56.0% | $6.1K | $20K | B | 0x64d46c…67eb | ||
| Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s… | 2026-06-14 | 34.0% | $14K | $210K | B | 0x88e08e…2935 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 :
- Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland
- Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B9V859LXN3",
"slug": "switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass",
"question": "Will a majority of Swiss voters approve the referendum question on the ballot in June?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"switzerland",
"referendum-2026",
"direct-democracy",
"june-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 230082,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}