CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the Swiss referendum held in June pass? [ resolved 2026-06-14 ]

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 2 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Referendum on the Civilian Service Act 2026-06-14 100.0%
$1.5K $31K
A 0x64d46c…67eb
No to ten million Switzerland initiative 2026-06-14 0.0%
$7.6K $274K
A 0x88e08e…2935
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers not provided link Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 2 markets · share this text
As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 : - Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland - Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held. The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
platform source field polymarket.descriptionhttps://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html
sources (4) · stated precedence rule
  • admin.ch venue-listed
  • ch.ch venue-listed
  • Swiss Federal Chancellery source of record from rules text · editorial
  • Swiss authorities from rules text · editorial
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? polymarket 2026-06-14 0%
YES Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? polymarket 2026-06-14 100%
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B9V859LXN3",
  "slug": "switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass",
  "question": "Will the Swiss referendum held in June pass?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "switzerland",
    "referendum-2026",
    "direct-democracy",
    "june-2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 2,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 305336,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 93,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Swiss Federal Chancellery",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "admin.ch",
      "url": "https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ch.ch",
      "url": "https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Swiss Federal Chancellery",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "Swiss authorities",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →