Will a tariff increase on Canada be in effect by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/ sources (2)
- reuters.com venue-listed
- official information from the Trump administration from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/tariff-increase-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/tariff-increase-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("tariff-increase-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BSJ5P9KLZ0",
"slug": "tariff-increase-on-canada-in-effect-by-june-30",
"question": "Will a tariff increase on Canada be in effect by the end of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"trump",
"economy",
"politics",
"tariffs",
"us-canada"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 44644,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "reuters.com",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the Trump administration",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}