Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026? [ resolves 2027-02-28 (237D) ]
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026 | 2027-02-28 | 85.0% | — | $25K | A | 0x74f190…98bd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL sources (3) · single authority
- fred.stlouisfed.org venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) source of record from rules text · editorial
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-K0Q5Q21QD3",
"slug": "tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-2026",
"question": "Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"tech-layoffs",
"labor-market",
"employment",
"ai-economy",
"2027-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 25394,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}