Will a Republican win the Tennessee Senate election? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republicans | — | 99.9% | — | $14K | A | 0x17d8c6…780a | ||
| The Democrats | — | 2.0% | — | $9.8K | A | 0xa0af1b…d0da | ||
| Person A | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4d9789…2003 | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x55d88f…b685 | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbe6682…ffa5 | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8b5880…5d5a | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcf03a1…eef2 | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc255c5…4f2d | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x89d2fe…8ebb | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbaf97c…8a54 | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x30286c…4834 | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x590f6e…4695 | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf6979b…59e6 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
recent wire items
- Fresh volume backs GOP Tennessee Senate win at 93% 93% · $21K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Republican Tennessee Senate win at 93%, echoing Kalshi's 92% read on the same race.
- 43% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, consistent cross-venue positioning in the same direction.
- Near-identical prices on Kalshi and Polymarket reduce arbitrage opportunity and confirm consensus conviction.
- Resolves after 2026 Tennessee Senate race is called.
- Democrats win Tennessee Senate stays a long shot at 7% 7% · $28K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Democratic Tennessee Senate win at 7%, deep underdog territory.
- 61% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours, the sharpest lifetime-share surge in this batch.
- Paired with Spike 0 and Spike 5, the activity suggests traders are cross-checking Tennessee contracts across venues.
- Resolves after 2026 Tennessee Senate race outcome is certified.
- Heavy trading tests the Tennessee GOP Senate price at 94% 94% · $20K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republican Tennessee win at 94%, closely tracking the Kalshi 93% on the same race.
- 42% of all-time volume on this contract placed in 24h, keeping cross-venue pricing tight.
- Simultaneous volume spikes on both venues point to coordinated market attention, likely midterm cycle re-engagement.
- Resolves on 2026 Tennessee Senate election night.
- Democratic Tennessee Senate odds stay near zero 5% · $27K 24h
- Polymarket marks Democrats at 5% in Tennessee, effectively a long-shot price with little disagreement.
- 61% of all-time contract volume hit in a single 24h window, the sharpest relative surge in this batch.
- Concentrated volume on a near-zero price may reflect arbitrage activity or contested positioning against the Kalshi mirror contract.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/tennessee-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/tennessee-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("tennessee-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TGH45YCRW3",
"slug": "tennessee-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Will a Republican win the Tennessee Senate election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"senate-race",
"tennessee",
"us-elections",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23643,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}