Will Tesla Optimus be released this year? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla Optimus on sale before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | $178 | $40K | C | TESLAOPTIMUS…C31 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Tesla | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/teslaoptimus-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/teslaoptimus-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("teslaoptimus-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YG67F2S0Z5",
"slug": "teslaoptimus-26dec31",
"question": "Will Tesla Optimus be released this year?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"tesla-optimus",
"robotics-humanoid",
"product-release",
"2026",
"consumer-availability"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 40037,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "Tesla",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.tesla.com/blog",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Tesla",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Tesla",
"url": "https://www.tesla.com/blog",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}