Will the Texas Governor election be won by the Republican candidate? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republicans | — | 72.3% | $270 | $19K | A | 0xcd9539…a58a | ||
| The Democrats | — | 27.0% | $77 | $20K | A | 0x12b727…089b | ||
| Option A | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb02459…9047 | ||
| Option B | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x66f2c1…e8c2 | ||
| Option C | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa7969d…e033 | ||
| Option D | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9a6a20…8962 | ||
| Option E | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0a5df7…296c | ||
| Option F | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa324ae…0d96 | ||
| Option G | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa09be4…94f5 | ||
| Option H | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc11de8…42be | ||
| Option I | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbfb620…ac39 | ||
| Option J | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbcf639…1e4e | ||
| Other | — | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xba2215…0e4e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
recent wire items
- Republican Texas governor odds hold firm at 84% 84% · $48K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans winning the 2026 Texas governor race at 84%, reflecting strong but not certain conviction.
- 24h volume of $48,092 equals 29% of all-time contract volume, a meaningful single-day capital deployment into a state race.
- Fresh attention in late September, well ahead of Election Day, suggests a catalyst, candidate announcement, polling, or opponent development, is drawing traders in.
- At 84%, the market leaves a material 16% tail on a Democratic or third-party upset in a state Republicans have held since 1994.
- Texas governor odds hold under 30% through surge 28% · $31K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 28% in the Texas governor race, below 1-in-4 territory, reflecting deep structural disadvantage.
- 24h volume of $31K is 30% of all-time, suggesting a notable burst of attention on a long-shot contract.
- Fresh volume near 28% could reflect a speculative bet on candidate news, a GOP stumble, or simply odds-chasing.
- Resolves on the November 2026 Texas gubernatorial election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/texas-governor-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/texas-governor-winner-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("texas-governor-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HCY4NZ1SN4",
"slug": "texas-governor-winner-2026",
"question": "Will the Texas Governor election be won by the Republican candidate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"texas",
"governor",
"us-2026",
"state-executive"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 39069,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official certification",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}