Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]

Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 2 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026	2026-06-30	5.5%		$9.0K	$79K		C	`0xa034de…3d2a`
Thailand strikes Cambodia by January 31, 2026	2026-06-30	1.1%		—	$44K		C	`0xf6481a…f45c`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 2 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-966/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-966.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-966")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-33LV7DM5R6",
  "slug": "thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-966",
  "question": "Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "southeast-asia",
    "military-conflict",
    "thailand-cambodia",
    "2026",
    "cross-border"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 2,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 123143,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 24,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →