Will there be a total Internet blackout in Iran in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-08 ]
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- radar.cloudflare.com venue-listed
- Cloudflare Radar data for Iran from rules text · editorial
- Cloudflare Radar source of record from rules text · editorial
- Iran Traffic trends chart from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/total-internet-blackout-in-iran-byptptpt-20260720155238426/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/total-internet-blackout-in-iran-byptptpt-20260720155238426 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("total-internet-blackout-in-iran-byptptpt-20260720155238426") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-N8H4YFBJ94",
"slug": "total-internet-blackout-in-iran-byptptpt-20260720155238426",
"question": "Will there be a total Internet blackout in Iran in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"internet-infrastructure",
"2026",
"sanctions-conflict",
"connectivity-crisis"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 35607,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 87,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Cloudflare Radar",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "radar.cloudflare.com",
"url": "https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Cloudflare Radar data for Iran",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Cloudflare Radar",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Iran Traffic trends chart",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}