Will Trump meet with Putin by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Vladimir Putin between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Trump and Putin are present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Trump meeting Putin by year-end stays heavily favored Polymarket 84%
- The Polymarket contract prices an 84% probability that US President Donald Trump will meet Putin by end of 2026, resolved via uma_oracle.
- Witkoff's scheduled Russia visit and the Oslo intelligence-sharing restoration both point toward active diplomatic contact, consistent with the high Polymarket probability on a Trump-Putin meeting.
- The related Polymarket contract on a three-way Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting (CM-EVT-FNBRJ6KY59) sits at only 9%, showing the market sees bilateral US-Russia contact as far more likely than a trilateral summit.
- Resolution via uma_oracle requires documented evidence of an in-person Trump-Putin meeting before January 1, 2027; the 75-percentage-point gap between bilateral and trilateral meeting odds captures the market's skepticism on Ukraine's seat at the table.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/trump-meets-with-putin-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/trump-meets-with-putin-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("trump-meets-with-putin-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TK9WNXXYF6",
"slug": "trump-meets-with-putin-by",
"question": "Will Trump meet with Putin by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"geopolitics",
"us-russia-relations",
"diplomatic-meetings",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 102242,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 34,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}