TX-04 House Election Winner [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 99.8% | — | $11K | B | 0xa59f27…04bd | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 0.5% | — | $13K | B | 0x369d01…382f | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x680349…0a1a | ||
| Will A win the TX-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0ee22a…31af | ||
| Will B win the TX-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf425cb…fd0d | ||
| Will C win the TX-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7443d8…af5d | ||
| Will D win the TX-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x307c22…c495 | ||
| Will E win the TX-04 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x55d639…f9b2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Republicans hold TX-04 at 96% odds through a volume surge 96% · $13K 24h
- Market prices a 96% chance Republicans retain TX-04, effectively a locked outcome with minimal upset risk.
- 24h volume of $13K is 37% of all-time handle, suggesting a round of final positioning as the race approaches resolution.
- TX-04 is a deeply Republican district; volume surge likely reflects traders closing out or establishing end-of-cycle positions.
- Resolves at the TX-04 election result; 4% residual reflects standard tail-risk rather than any genuine competitive signal.
- TX-04 Democratic win stays near zero as trading picks up 1% · $23K 24h
- Polymarket prices 1%, market rules out a Democratic win in this deep-red Texas district.
- $23K in 24h is 41% of all-time volume, a notable spike on an extreme-odds contract.
- Volume at near-zero odds typically reflects speculation on a tail scenario or long-shot arbitrage.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm election night.
- TX-04 Democratic win stays a long shot at 1% 1% · $23K 24h
- 1% price reflects near-total consensus that this deep-red Texas district remains out of Democratic reach in 2026.
- 24h volume of $23K is 40% of all-time handle, notable capital deploying to confirm, not challenge, the Republican lock.
- Fresh attention at extreme odds may reflect broad Texas House sweep scenario testing or hedging against a dramatic wave.
- Resolves 2026 election night; only a historic national environment shift would move this contract off the floor.
- TX-04 stays a long shot for Democrats, priced at 1% 1% · $22K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at just 1% in TX-04, functionally treating the seat as a Republican hold.
- $22.2K in 24h is 39% of all-time volume; fresh flow into a near-zero contract signals deliberate positioning.
- Deep-red East Texas district; volume at 1% likely reflects hedgers or map-sweep bettors covering long-shot scenarios.
- Resolves on November 2026 House election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/tx-04-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/tx-04-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("tx-04-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1P68WDW7C0",
"slug": "tx-04-house-election-winner",
"question": "TX-04 House Election Winner",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"texas",
"2026",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24083,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}