Will the Republican candidate win the Texas 26th Congressional District House election in 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 99.8% | — | $16K | B | 0xa5cef1…ee82 | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 5.6% | — | $7.9K | B | 0xfec01e…0434 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb3d8cf…4599 | ||
| Will A win the TX-26 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xecae3a…00db | ||
| Will B win the TX-26 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf8db10…1831 | ||
| Will C win the TX-26 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1a8312…1981 | ||
| Will D win the TX-26 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb144c1…605e | ||
| Will E win the TX-26 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8d06dc…3956 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
recent wire items
- Traders back Republican hold in TX-26 as Dem odds sit at 1% 1% · $10K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Democratic win in Texas's 26th congressional district at 1%, the market assigns near-zero probability to a flip.
- 46% of all-time volume, $10K, arrived in 24 hours, the most active single day since the contract opened.
- TX-26 is a deep-red district; volume at 1% odds mirrors the WI-05 pattern and likely reflects House-majority basket trading.
- Resolves on the certified House election result for Texas's 26th district.
- Heavy trading keeps TX-26 a near-certain GOP hold 1% · $10K 24h
- At 1%, the market treats a Democratic win in Texas's 26th district as essentially impossible.
- 24h volume of $10K is 46% of all-time, close to half the contract's full history in one session.
- TX-26 is a deep-red district; volume surge likely reflects positioning cleanup ahead of November.
- Resolves on certified TX-26 House race result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/tx-26-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/tx-26-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("tx-26-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y7G5WKJ4X7",
"slug": "tx-26-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Republican candidate win the Texas 26th Congressional District House election in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"texas",
"2026",
"midterm-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24064,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}