Will Tyler Robinson be convicted of homicide by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide | 2026-12-31 | 48.0% | $1.2K | $252K | A | 0xdfea88…2129 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
- atty.utahcounty.gov venue-listed
- le.utah.gov venue-listed
- official judgment delivered by the ruling court source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/tyler-robinson-convicted-of-homicide/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/tyler-robinson-convicted-of-homicide |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("tyler-robinson-convicted-of-homicide") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D8BCCD43C2",
"slug": "tyler-robinson-convicted-of-homicide",
"question": "Will Tyler Robinson be convicted of homicide by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"criminal-justice",
"legal-conviction",
"2026",
"high-profile-case"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 252265,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official judgment delivered by the ruling court",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "atty.utahcounty.gov",
"url": "https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "le.utah.gov",
"url": "https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official judgment delivered by the ruling court",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}