Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 exceed 2%? [ resolves 2027-02-12 (204D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 0% and 1% | 2027-02-12 | 59.0% | $1.6K | $11K | A | 0x2a0dcf…1ffd | ||
| Between 1% and 2% | 2027-02-12 | 21.6% | $1.0K | $16K | A | 0x79558f…ae3b | ||
| ≤ 0% | 2027-02-12 | 11.0% | $78 | $10K | A | 0xb57f01…4376 | ||
| Between 2% and 3% | 2027-02-12 | 6.6% | $5 | $3.4K | A | 0x3e6b2d…f120 | ||
| Between 4% and 5% | 2027-02-12 | 3.0% | $5 | $7.4K | A | 0x95fbfa…3d5e | ||
| Between 3% and 4% | 2027-02-12 | 0.4% | $5 | $2.3K | A | 0xff5f8f…9aa1 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2027-02-12 | 0.3% | $5 | $2.5K | A | 0xd1cdfc…8759 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases sources (2) · single authority
- ons.gov.uk source of record venue-listed
- https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/uk-annual-gdp-growth-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/uk-annual-gdp-growth-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("uk-annual-gdp-growth-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZWKDJ7T3B7",
"slug": "uk-annual-gdp-growth-2026",
"question": "Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 exceed 2%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"uk-gdp",
"economic-growth",
"macroeconomics",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 52933,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ons.gov.uk",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ons.gov.uk",
"url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}