Will U.K. annual inflation be above 2% in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-20 (181D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 4.0% and 4.4% | 2027-01-20 | 18.0% | — | $3.3K | A | 0x6657db…d75e | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2027-01-20 | 6.0% | — | $6.4K | A | 0xe6e0dd…5e56 | ||
| Between 2.5% and 2.9% | 2027-01-20 | 3.0% | — | $638 | A | 0xdc0f54…f85f | ||
| Between 1.5% and 1.9% | 2027-01-20 | 1.6% | — | $541 | A | 0xcce447…6f70 | ||
| Between 2.0% and 2.4% | 2027-01-20 | 1.0% | — | $389 | A | 0x5356e2…a2be | ||
| Between 1.0% and 1.4% | 2027-01-20 | 0.7% | — | $381 | A | 0x5a6864…d5f4 | ||
| Between 3.5% and 3.9% | 2027-01-20 | 0.4% | — | $747 | A | 0x95b01f…4105 | ||
| ≥ 1% | 2027-01-20 | 0.2% | — | $851 | A | 0x488b72…bbfc | ||
| Between 3.0% and 3.4% | 2027-01-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa08ede…7c19 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases sources (4) · single authority
- ons.gov.uk venue-listed
- ons.gov.uk venue-listed
- Office for National Statistics (ONS) source of record from rules text · editorial
- ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/uk-annual-inflation-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/uk-annual-inflation-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("uk-annual-inflation-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XCGLKKB0P6",
"slug": "uk-annual-inflation-in-2026",
"question": "Will U.K. annual inflation be above 2% in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"inflation",
"uk-economic-data",
"price-levels",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13281,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Office for National Statistics (ONS)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ons.gov.uk",
"url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ons.gov.uk",
"url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Office for National Statistics (ONS)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}