Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2026-12 ]
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31 | 2026-01-31 | 0.2% | — | $22K | C | 0xa56434…17f0 | ||
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31 | 2026-01-31 | 0.1% | — | $145K | C | 0x0dcb82…5661 | ||
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.4% | $1.4K | $285K | C | 0xf019da…95a5 | ||
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30 | 2026-09-30 | 12.0% | — | $2.3K | C | 0xca06ba…aaba | ||
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 16.0% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x3cdc91…005d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so.
Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S0SN3369D1",
"slug": "ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31",
"question": "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"geopolitics",
"ukraine",
"referendum",
"2026",
"peace-process"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 455757,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}