Will there be a coup attempt in Ukraine by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Ukraine coup odds hold low at 8% through a volume rise 8% · $45K 24h
- 8% price reflects the market firmly discounting a coup attempt in Ukraine before year-end, despite active war conditions.
- 29% of all-time Polymarket volume arrived in 24 hours, showing meaningful but not record-setting renewed attention on the contract.
- Fresh capital at a low price implies traders are either reaffirming conviction or responding to a geopolitical event that raised the question again.
- Contract resolves December 31, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-coup-attempt-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-coup-attempt-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-coup-attempt-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YXSZTFG520",
"slug": "ukraine-coup-attempt-by-june-30",
"question": "Will there be a coup attempt in Ukraine by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"ukraine",
"coup-attempt",
"2026",
"political-instability"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 124477,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}