Will Ukraine join NATO before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 4.9% | $54 | $1.17M | A | 0x48c2b0…7f39 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm sources (2) · single authority
- nato.int venue-listed
- official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-joins-nato-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-joins-nato-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-joins-nato-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5C5D7LP6B5",
"slug": "ukraine-joins-nato-before-2027",
"question": "Will Ukraine join NATO before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"nato-expansion",
"ukraine",
"military-alliance",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1173009,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official NATO website",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "nato.int",
"url": "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}