Will a Ukraine peace referendum be passed before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $27 | $27K | C | 0xaea40d…5c1d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the government of Ukraine from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Heavy flows discount a Ukraine peace referendum before 2027 7% · $31K 24h
- Price at 7%, Polymarket traders heavily discount any formal Ukraine peace referendum passing before 2027.
- 24h volume of $31K equals 51% of all-time contract flow, reflecting abrupt re-engagement with the question.
- Surge likely trails a peace-talk development, ceasefire framing, or territorial proposal surfacing in diplomatic channels.
- Hard end-2026 resolution window leaves minimal runway; 7% reflects structural, not zero, tail-risk for a rushed plebiscite.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-peace-referendum-passed-by-december-31-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-peace-referendum-passed-by-december-31-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-peace-referendum-passed-by-december-31-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5SVWYW2FT8",
"slug": "ukraine-peace-referendum-passed-by-december-31-2026",
"question": "Will a Ukraine peace referendum be passed before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"ukraine-peace",
"geopolitics",
"referendum",
"2026",
"trump-era",
"conflict-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26524,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the government of Ukraine",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}