Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $1.3K | $2.53M | C | 0x4167e2…1415 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 9%
- Polymarket prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 9%, a long shot despite active US and India peace diplomacy.
- Escalating drone strikes on Kyiv infrastructure while peace talks are pursued puts the market's skeptical 9% in direct tension with diplomatic news headlines.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-207L4994P4) prices a US-Russia military clash at 4%, suggesting markets see neither peace nor direct escalation as likely near-term.
- Resolution via Polymarket's uma_oracle; a formal signed peace deal is required, setting a much higher bar than ceasefire talks or diplomatic meetings.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 9%
- Polymarket prices 9% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, a long-shot read despite renewed US diplomatic engagement.
- Trump envoy visits to Kyiv are consistent with active mediation, but the prediction market signals low confidence that talks will produce a signed agreement within the year.
- A companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine agreeing to cede territory to Russia by 2026 sits at 7%, and the three-way summit contract (Trump, Putin, Zelensky together) prices at 6%, showing aligned skepticism across related questions.
- Resolution via UMA oracle requires a signed peace deal, a high bar; territorial concession and a summit are priced separately and nearly as low.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 remains a long shot Polymarket 9%
- Polymarket prices a 9% chance Ukraine signs a peace deal with Russia before 2027.
- The oil-deal expansion of talks introduces commercial interests that the market appears to view as a complication, not a catalyst, given the low probability.
- A companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by 2026 sits at 6%, and Zelenskyy leaving office by year-end at 5%, a coherent low-probability cluster.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; a signed, formal peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia is required, not a ceasefire or partial accord.
- Ukraine peace deal with Russia before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 7%
- Polymarket prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 7%, a deeply pessimistic read despite ongoing diplomatic activity.
- Continued Russian bombardment killing civilians is consistent with the market's near-dismissal of a near-term deal.
- The separate Polymarket contract on Ukraine ceding territory by 2026 (CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9) sits at 6%, showing the market sees neither peace nor major concessions as likely.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; the definition of a signed peace deal versus a ceasefire is the key settlement ambiguity.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 9%
- Polymarket prices 9% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027.
- Escalating air strikes and Moscow rejecting German calls to de-escalate are consistent with the low probability, the market is not treating Trump's diplomatic efforts as a near-term catalyst.
- A companion Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy meeting together before 2027 sits at just 8%, reinforcing that the market sees no credible trilateral framework forming.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the contract likely requires a signed, publicly announced agreement, a ceasefire or framework deal without formal signing would not settle it.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
"slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
"question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"ukraine-russia",
"peace-negotiations",
"2026",
"conflict-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2528171,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}