Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | $1.3K | $2.53M | C | 0x4167e2…1415 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 13%
- Polymarket puts only 13% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, making it a long shot despite diplomatic signals.
- Putin's public statement about deal prospects and Ukraine's 'new dynamic' framing are not reflected in a meaningful odds shift; the market remains skeptical.
- A separate Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-66S3LD3901) prices only 6% on a peace agreement by 2026, showing the market sees any deal as very late-cycle at best.
- Polymarket contracts resolve via UMA oracle; a signed peace agreement would need to be publicly verifiable to trigger resolution.
- Ukraine peace deal with Russia before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 10%
- Polymarket prices only 10% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Modi's public call for peace at the SCO is a diplomatic signal, but the 10% price reflects continued market skepticism about a deal materializing.
- The companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine ceding territory by 2026 sits at 7% with volume up 3,405% day over day, drawing fresh attention to territorial concession scenarios.
- The 6% price on a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement by 2026 (CM-EVT-66S3LD3901) tightens the window further: markets see almost no chance of resolution this calendar year.
- Ukraine peace deal with Russia before 2027 remains a long shot Polymarket 10%
- Polymarket puts only 10% odds on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, a firmly long-shot read.
- Russia's escalating strikes on civilian infrastructure and Ukrainian energy sites are consistent with the market's near-dismissal of a near-term settlement.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-T1H8NR4G99) puts just 8% on the U.S. recognizing Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027, suggesting neither diplomatic pathway is seen as likely.
- The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on a formal signed peace deal; ceasefires or framework agreements short of a signed treaty would not trigger resolution.
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot at 14 percent Polymarket 14%
- Polymarket prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at 14%, a clear long-shot assessment.
- The Kremlin's 'no new ideas' declaration and reported offensive planning are consistent with the low 14% pricing, not a near-term resolution scenario.
- The Polymarket contract on Ukraine agreeing to cede territory by 2026 sits at just 6%, suggesting markets see neither peace nor territorial concession as likely.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; any formal peace deal announcement would be the settlement trigger.
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot at 13% Polymarket 13%
- Polymarket prices 13% odds Ukraine signs a peace deal with Russia before 2027, resolves via uma_oracle.
- Reports that the Kremlin views talks as a dead end and is escalating are consistent with the market's heavy long-shot pricing on a deal.
- The near-term contract (CM-EVT-5HJ8PCBVK9, peace deal by August 31) carries no actionable Polymarket price, but the Vatican's public call for Moscow to end the war adds diplomatic noise without market-moving substance.
- Resolves via uma_oracle confirmation of a signed Ukraine-Russia peace agreement before January 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
"slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
"question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"ukraine-russia",
"peace-negotiations",
"2026",
"conflict-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2528171,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}