Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | $2.9K | $2.22M | C | 0x4167e2…1415 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Ukraine peace deal consensus stays below quarter odds Polymarket 20%
- Polymarket prices 20% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, with active Russian missile strikes on Kyiv ongoing.
- The Ukraine-EU drone deal and Russian retaliation signal a continued war footing on both sides, consistent with prediction markets holding well below even odds.
- A companion Polymarket contract on the US recognizing Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027 sits at 12%, suggesting markets see the political preconditions for a deal as similarly distant.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; a signed peace deal requires formal treaty execution, not merely ceasefire announcements, raising the resolution bar considerably.
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 holds at deep discount Polymarket 22%
- The Polymarket contract prices 22% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, resolved via UMA oracle.
- Kremlin-source reporting of likely escalation is consistent with the market's low peace-deal pricing; the two readings reinforce each other.
- Companion Polymarket contracts show only 6% on Ukraine giving up the rest of Donbas and 10% on a peace referendum passing before 2027, confirming the market sees no near-term settlement path.
- Resolves via UMA oracle using a publicly verifiable signed peace agreement; partial ceasefires or memoranda of understanding would not trigger resolution.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal by 2027 priced as long shot Polymarket 21%
- The Polymarket contract prices 21% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Reuters sourcing on likely Russian escalation is broadly consistent with the market's 79% implied probability that no deal materializes before year-end.
- Two correlated Polymarket contracts price even lower: Ukraine agreeing to cede the rest of Donbas at 5%, and a peace referendum passing at 10%, suggesting markets see territorial concessions as the binding constraint.
- Resolution via UMA oracle requires a verifiable signed peace agreement; ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure further reduce near-term deal probability.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 pricing holds at low consensus Polymarket 20%
- Polymarket prices a 20% probability Ukraine signs a peace deal with Russia before 2027.
- Active Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow run directly counter to Trump's 'getting closer' optimism; the 20% reading reflects the market absorbing both signals without conviction.
- A companion Polymarket contract on Zelensky leaving the Ukrainian presidency by end of 2026 sits at 10%, indicating markets do not see leadership change as a near-term peace catalyst.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; a signed peace agreement is required, not a ceasefire or framework announcement, setting a high bar for the 20% to pay out.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 remains a low-odds fringe Polymarket 19%
- Polymarket prices only a 19% chance Ukraine and Russia sign a peace deal before 2027.
- The overnight Kyiv bombardment, nearly 70 missiles, with ballistic missiles entirely unintercepted, is consistent with the low peace deal probability.
- A companion Polymarket contract prices Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO at just 11%, suggesting neither side is near a settlement framework.
- Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle; a formal signed agreement between Ukraine and Russia would be required, not a ceasefire or memorandum.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
"slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
"question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"ukraine-russia",
"peace-negotiations",
"2026",
"conflict-resolution",
"diplomatic-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2222360,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 27,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}