Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | $1.3K | $2.53M | C | 0x4167e2…1415 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot at 8 percent Polymarket 8%
- Polymarket prices only 8% probability on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, with trading volume up 4,388% day over day, signaling the claim is drawing sharp fresh attention.
- Despite Trump's public pressure on Zelenskyy and the collapsed energy ceasefire, the prediction market holds near the long-shot range, not pricing a near-term breakthrough.
- Companion Polymarket contracts reinforce the skepticism: 6% on Ukraine ceding territory, 6% on Ukraine limiting its armed forces, and 5% on Nord Stream restarting before 2027.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; a signed framework agreement, even without full implementation, would likely trigger resolution.
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 remains a long shot Polymarket 6%
- The Polymarket contract puts only 6% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027.
- Guardian reporting of a deepening U.S.-Russia tilt and Moscow's resistance to security guarantees is fully consistent with a near-zero market probability on a near-term deal.
- A companion Polymarket contract on a ceasefire in 2026 (CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3) also sits at 9%, and the Ukraine territory cession contract (CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9) is at 6%, the entire peace-process suite is priced as a long shot.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the cluster of sub-10% readings across all three Polymarket contracts represents the most consistent geopolitical consensus in this batch.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 6%
- The Polymarket contract prices only 6% on Ukraine and Russia signing a peace deal before 2027.
- Guardian reporting on US diplomatic drift toward Russia is consistent with the market assigning near-negligible odds to a formal deal this year.
- A companion Polymarket contract on a ceasefire agreement in 2026 (CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3) sits at 9%, showing slightly better odds for a lower bar than a full peace deal.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle on confirmation of a signed peace agreement; a ceasefire alone would not trigger resolution.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 9%
- The Polymarket contract on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027 sits at 9%, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Active US-led talks in Miami mark a concrete diplomatic step, but the Polymarket price shows the market is far from pricing a signed deal, the news has not moved the probability near any meaningful threshold.
- A related Polymarket contract on Ukraine agreeing to cede territory to Russia by 2026 holds at 5%, suggesting the market sees both deal likelihood and territorial concession as remote.
- The Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelensky being seen together before 2027 sits at 5%, reinforcing a broad scepticism that talks will reach head-of-state summit level.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 9%
- Polymarket prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 at just 9%, a long shot despite active US and India peace diplomacy.
- Escalating drone strikes on Kyiv infrastructure while peace talks are pursued puts the market's skeptical 9% in direct tension with diplomatic news headlines.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-207L4994P4) prices a US-Russia military clash at 4%, suggesting markets see neither peace nor direct escalation as likely near-term.
- Resolution via Polymarket's uma_oracle; a formal signed peace deal is required, setting a much higher bar than ceasefire talks or diplomatic meetings.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
"slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
"question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"ukraine-russia",
"peace-negotiations",
"2026",
"conflict-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2528171,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}