Will the US announce a halt in Iran offensive operations by 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-08 ]
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 19 | 2026-07-20 | 0.1% | — | $33K | B | 0x6b3cad…c5e5 | ||
| July 21 | 2026-07-22 | 0.1% | — | $224K | B | 0xbcd6e9…2443 | ||
| August 15 | 2026-08-15 | 43.0% | $17K | $77K | B | 0x64e298…f083 | ||
| August 31 | 2026-08-31 | 64.0% | $12K | $90K | B | 0x5e0190…8028 | ||
| July 31 | 2026-08-31 | 25.0% | $43K | $197K | B | 0xba34d7…db7a | ||
| July 24 | 2026-08-31 | 5.0% | $111K | $362K | B | 0x6a9afa…c897 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which the United States is a party, even if some measures remain (for example, the naval blockade, sanctions, or a defensive military posture). A time-limited cessation qualifies, provided it constitutes a general suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. A qualifying announcement need not include a commitment from Iran, provided the end or suspension of US offensive military action is communicated. An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of offensive military action against Iran. For example, a pause limited to a specific area, target, or operation, a halt to a single wave of strikes while broader operations continue, or a reduction in the scope or intensity of operations would not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present cessation or suspension of offensive military action against Iran, previously-unannounced prior cessation or suspension of such military action, or definitive decision to cease or suspend such military action.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to US offensive military action against Iran, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a ceasefire by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending offensive military action against Iran is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to military action;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Announcements or acceptances of a ceasefire attributed only to Iran, mediating states, or any party other than the United States; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to military action rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether military action actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · single authority
- United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-byptptpt-20260718015003096/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-byptptpt-20260718015003096 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-byptptpt-20260718015003096") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8WKL569ZP1",
"slug": "us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-byptptpt-20260718015003096",
"question": "Will the US announce a halt in Iran offensive operations by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-iran-relations",
"military-operations",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 983613,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 62,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}