Will the U.S. enact an AI safety bill before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $101K | B | 0xcdbf64…35b8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → Congress.gov sources (3) · single authority
congress.gov committed source official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- US AI safety bill before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 5%
- The Polymarket contract on the U.S. enacting an AI safety bill before 2027 prices at just 5%, placing it firmly in long-shot territory.
- Hawley's hearing generated legislative momentum in principle, but the Polymarket contract's 5% indicates the market is not treating the hearing as a meaningful step toward passage.
- A companion Polymarket contract on AI being charged with a crime before 2027 sits at 8%, similarly low, the market broadly discounts near-term AI legal or regulatory action.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the bill would need to pass both chambers and be signed before year-end 2026, a very compressed timeline given the current 5% pricing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WMMFP7Y6G5",
"slug": "us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027",
"question": "Will the U.S. enact an AI safety bill before 2027?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"us-ai-regulation",
"legislative-policy",
"ai-safety",
"2026",
"tech-governance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 101128,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "Congress.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "congress.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "congress.gov",
"url": "Congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}