Will U.S. forces be deployed in Gaza before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | — | $51K | C | 0x10dc09…3d34 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Flows test the ceiling on U.S. ground force deployment in Gaza 13% · $70K 24h
- Polymarket at 13%, market assigns a non-trivial but minority probability to deployment.
- 24h volume $70K is 45% of all-time, a meaningful mid-cycle attention surge.
- Geopolitical escalation signals or congressional debate may be driving renewed positioning.
- Contract runs through end-2026; 13% reflects low but live tail risk for a desk.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-forces-in-gaza-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-forces-in-gaza-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-forces-in-gaza-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B5LVQVPB08",
"slug": "us-forces-in-gaza-before-2027",
"question": "Will U.S. forces be deployed in Gaza before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-military",
"gaza-conflict",
"middle-east",
"2026",
"military-deployment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 50624,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}