Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 exceed 2%? [ resolves 2026-07-30 (7D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 2.0% and 2.5% | 2026-07-30 | 37.0% | $6 | $2.8K | A | 0xa3a8bb…770f | ||
| Between 1.5% and 2.0% | 2026-07-30 | 33.0% | $266 | $3.2K | A | 0xcb0820…d663 | ||
| Between 2.5% and 3.0% | 2026-07-30 | 18.0% | $1 | $2.4K | A | 0x88cf36…b609 | ||
| Between 1.0% and 1.5% | 2026-07-30 | 15.8% | $1 | $2.0K | A | 0x40df08…1960 | ||
| Between 3.0% and 3.5% | 2026-07-30 | 15.4% | $12 | $1.9K | A | 0x4e8bd7…4312 | ||
| ≤ 1% | 2026-07-30 | 4.3% | $1 | $2.9K | A | 0x2fbd2d…bc0b | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-07-30 | 2.1% | $92 | $3.3K | A | 0x2a48c1…589b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product sources (2) · single authority
- bea.gov source of record venue-listed
- BEA from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VYFW76XHC2",
"slug": "us-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026",
"question": "Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 exceed 2%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"economic-policy",
"us-gdp",
"gdp-growth",
"q2-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18515,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "bea.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bea.gov",
"url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BEA",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}