Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | $73K | $2.15M | C | 0x182390…47d9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran from rules text · editorial
- overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Pre-2027 US-Iran deal consensus anchors above 70 percent Polymarket 71%
- The Polymarket contract prices a 71% probability that the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.
- The launch of formal VP-level talks in Switzerland is consistent with above-even pricing, though the market assigns meaningful doubt to any completed deal.
- The June 30 short-dated contract at 51% versus 71% by end-2026 captures the market's view that timeline, not deal viability, is the primary uncertainty.
- A 19% Polymarket contract on the US invading Iran before 2027 sits alongside the deal contract, framing the outcome distribution as deal-or-escalation, not a stable status quo.
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 leans likely in pricing Polymarket 63%
- Polymarket contract puts 63% on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027, despite stalled talks.
- House vote to curb Trump on Iran is symbolic; markets still assign majority odds to an eventual deal.
- Companion Polymarket contract on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 sits at 20%, implying most deal probability is weighted to H2 2026.
- Resolves via uma_oracle based on a publicly announced US-Iran nuclear agreement before Jan 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VP51KKLQH2",
"slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027",
"question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"nuclear-diplomacy",
"us-iran-relations",
"international-agreements",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2150827,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}