Will the US lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-12 ]
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · single authority
- 2017-2021.state.gov venue-listed
- reuters.com venue-listed
- 2021.state.gov venue-listed
- United States federal government source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-lifts-caatsa-sanctions-on-turkey-byptptpt-20260708213004784/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-lifts-caatsa-sanctions-on-turkey-byptptpt-20260708213004784 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-lifts-caatsa-sanctions-on-turkey-byptptpt-20260708213004784") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6STHYHXFK2",
"slug": "us-lifts-caatsa-sanctions-on-turkey-byptptpt-20260708213004784",
"question": "Will the US lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"geopolitics",
"us-turkey",
"sanctions",
"caatsa",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18167,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States federal government",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "2017-2021.state.gov",
"url": "https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "reuters.com",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "2021.state.gov",
"url": "2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "United States federal government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}