Will the US establish a national Ethereum reserve before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US national Ethereum reserve before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 5.0% | — | $17K | C | 0x3bdf48…e5b0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Ethereum in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that the US government confiscating Ethereum does not count as holding Ethereum reserves.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from the US government from rules text the US federal reserve from rules text
recent wire items
- US national Ethereum reserve before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 5%
- The Polymarket contract on the US establishing a national Ethereum reserve before 2027 sits at 5%, a deep long-shot reading.
- The SEC's cancellation of Reg Crypto voting removes a near-term regulatory catalyst that could have clarified Ethereum's legal status and supported a reserve case.
- Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-0F2G0B8X49 prices a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027 at 10%, suggesting Bitcoin remains twice as likely as Ethereum to receive strategic reserve treatment.
- Resolves via UMA oracle on Polymarket; would require a formal US government announcement of an Ethereum reserve position before January 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-national-ethereum-reserve-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-national-ethereum-reserve-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-national-ethereum-reserve-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MVF6TJRMS1",
"slug": "us-national-ethereum-reserve-before-2027",
"question": "Will the US establish a national Ethereum reserve before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"crypto",
"ethereum",
"us-policy",
"digital-assets",
"government-reserves"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17498,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the US government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the US federal reserve",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}