US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-12 ]
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30 | 2026-04-30 | 0.2% | — | $1.16M | C | 0xd87a0e…e42e | ||
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 | 2026-05-31 | 0.1% | — | $20.54M | C | 0xbcacd5…1d55 | ||
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 3.1% | $221K | $1.72M | C | 0xc112ff…b292 | ||
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31 | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xef5365…fd76 | ||
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 21.0% | $44K | $1.32M | C | 0x58998d…3d6f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-38HGT3RJ52",
"slug": "us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by",
"question": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"geopolitics",
"iran-nuclear",
"diplomacy-sanctions",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24746972,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}