Will the US recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 3.8% | $405 | $624K | C | 0x0ac214…e92a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from the US government from rules text Donald Trump from rules text
recent wire items
- US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran leader stays a long shot Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket prices only 4% on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader before year-end, keeping regime-change recognition firmly in long-shot territory.
- Despite confirmed US strikes on dozens of Iranian targets and a US military buildup, prediction markets are not pricing in a near-term political resolution favorable to the exile leadership.
- The Strait of Hormuz reopening-by-year-end Polymarket contract sits at 19%, offering a related read on how far markets believe the conflict will be resolved in 2026.
- Resolution via UMA oracle requires an official US government statement of recognition, a high legal bar that explains the compressed pricing even amid active hostilities.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0SWQB28081",
"slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
"question": "Will the US recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran-policy",
"us-diplomacy",
"regime-change",
"2026",
"trump-administration"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 623771,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the US government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}