Will the US and China reach a tariff agreement by December 31? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31 | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | $614 | $218K | C | 0xf9c12a…3b5e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China from rules text overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | polymarket | 2026-09-27 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- US-China tariff agreement by year-end stays near full pricing Polymarket 95%
- The Polymarket contract prices a 95% chance the US and China reach a tariff agreement by December 31, 2026.
- Xi's White House visit, the highest-profile diplomatic contact of the year, is consistent with near-full market pricing of a deal, even though the summit fell short of a complete breakthrough.
- The partial nature of the summit outcome did not push the Polymarket contract meaningfully below its near-ceiling level, suggesting the market treats a formal agreement as a formality given existing framework talks.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the contract requires a formal tariff agreement, not merely a communique or freeze, a key edge case if only a partial deal is announced.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-52GRJCHNR9",
"slug": "us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31",
"question": "Will the US and China reach a tariff agreement by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"us-china-trade",
"tariffs",
"geopolitics",
"trade-negotiation",
"2026",
"trump"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 218466,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}