Will the United States and Cuba reach an economic deal? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-12 ]
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official announcement by the United States and Cuba from rules text · editorial
- overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| closed | US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- US-Cuba economic deal sits in deep skepticism territory 10% · $14K 24h
- Polymarket prices 10%, market treats a bilateral economic agreement by July 31 as a low-probability tail.
- $14K in 24h is 36% of all-time volume; fresh attention likely driven by diplomatic back-channel speculation.
- Structural barriers, sanctions law, Congressional opposition, anchor the market firmly toward no-deal.
- Resolves July 31, 2026, a month of runway, but 10% implies capital sees no credible near-term pathway.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y5QG71JGD0",
"slug": "us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by",
"question": "Will the United States and Cuba reach an economic deal?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-cuba-relations",
"economic-deal",
"trade-policy",
"2026",
"diplomatic-negotiation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 292638,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official announcement by the United States and Cuba",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}