Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by 2026? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-12 ]
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 17 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, | 2026-04-23 | 0.1% | — | $26.05M | C | 0xbbc668…54c5 | ||
| April 24, | 2026-04-25 | 0.1% | — | $2.84M | C | 0x084a4a…1d0f | ||
| April 30, | 2026-05-01 | 0.1% | — | $24.17M | C | 0xceb6df…e5f5 | ||
| May 8, | 2026-05-09 | 0.1% | — | $2.17M | C | 0xc53312…0405 | ||
| May 11, | 2026-05-12 | 0.1% | — | $5.13M | C | 0x667c01…93c4 | ||
| May 13, | 2026-05-14 | 0.1% | — | $2.65M | C | 0x2509da…d7ab | ||
| May 15, | 2026-05-16 | 0.1% | — | $18.45M | C | 0x1db02b…17b7 | ||
| May 22, | 2026-05-23 | 0.1% | — | $7.70M | C | 0x530987…d3ae | ||
| May 26, | 2026-05-27 | 0.1% | — | $22.93M | C | 0x421bc1…49e9 | ||
| June 30, | 2026-05-31 | 100.0% | $3.18M | $26.52M | C | 0x6114a8…d0e7 | ||
| May 31, | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $87.89M | C | 0x0e4a0c…a089 | ||
| June 7, | 2026-06-07 | 0.0% | — | $19.10M | C | 0x366f89…b537 | ||
| June 15, | 2026-06-15 | 100.0% | $6.86M | $33.14M | C | 0xd86a81…5423 | ||
| July 31, | 2026-07-31 | 47.0% | $861K | $6.73M | C | 0x20af55…b122 | ||
| August 31, | 2026-08-31 | 60.0% | $192K | $1.16M | C | 0xda5199…e79c | ||
| October 31, | 2026-10-31 | 72.0% | $137K | $372K | C | 0x087713…d869 | ||
| December 31, | 2026-12-31 | 77.0% | $492K | $10.27M | C | 0x9769f7…0d27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the governments of the United States and Iran from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 100% |
| NO | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-07 | 0% |
| closed | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | — |
| YES | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-31 | 100% |
| closed | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-27 | — |
| closed | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-23 | — |
| closed | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-16 | — |
| closed | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-14 | — |
| closed | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-12 | — |
| closed | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-09 | — |
| closed | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-01 | — |
| closed | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-04-25 | — |
| closed | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-04-23 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (13 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Capital stacks behind a US-Iran deal before June 15 14% · $2.5M 24h
- 14% implies roughly 1-in-7 odds with three days remaining to the June 15 deadline.
- $2.5M in 24h represents 28% of all-time volume, meaningful fresh attention into deadline.
- Surge likely tied to active diplomatic signals or back-channel reporting this week.
- Resolves June 15; window collapses rapidly, amplifying price sensitivity to any headline.
- Traders target US-Iran peace by June 7 as a long shot 29% · $642K 24h
- Polymarket at 29%, meaningful but minority probability of formal US-Iran deal within 4 days.
- $642K in 24h is 38% of all-time volume; fresh capital entering ahead of hard deadline.
- Diplomatic signals or back-channel reports likely driving attention into a tight 4-day window.
- Resolves June 7; failure to close by then collapses contract to zero.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TQTJ2MLTV8",
"slug": "us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",
"question": "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace deal by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"trump",
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"diplomacy",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 17,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 297284166,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 32,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the governments of the United States and Iran",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}