Will the U.S. and Russia reach a nuclear deal by 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by February 4?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.
An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.
Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.
The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (3)
- official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) from rules text · editorial
- the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs) from rules text · editorial
- a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| closed | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by February 4? | polymarket | 2026-02-05 | — |
| closed | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? | polymarket | 2026-01-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1LKC5D42R3",
"slug": "us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-december-31",
"question": "Will the U.S. and Russia reach a nuclear deal by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"us-russia-relations",
"nuclear-diplomacy",
"geopolitics",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 599753,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}