Will the USD/Iranian rial exchange rate reach a specified level by the end of July? [ resolved 2026-07-31 ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 1.4 | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $14 | $3.4K | C | 0xa54116…de89 | ||
| At least 1.9M | 2026-07-31 | 100.0% | $535 | $12K | C | 0xf79d9a…9143 | ||
| Between 1.4M and 1.5M | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $54 | $3.6K | C | 0x759dab…4c59 | ||
| Between 1.5M and 1.6M | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $91 | $4.0K | C | 0x54d5ec…c74b | ||
| Between 1.6M and 1.7M | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $48 | $3.8K | C | 0x6ace94…4be9 | ||
| Between 1.7M and 1.8M | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $91 | $5.0K | C | 0xc88b9d…80e7 | ||
| Between 1.8M and 1.9M | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $144 | $7.7K | C | 0xc0e9e4…fde0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for July 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd sources (3) · single authority
bonbast.com committed source Bonbast from rules text https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-02 | 100% |
| NO | Will USD be less than 1.4M Iranian rials on July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will USD be between 1.4M and 1.5M Iranian rials on July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-02 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/usd-x-iranian-rials-end-of-july-20260626151916139/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/usd-x-iranian-rials-end-of-july-20260626151916139 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("usd-x-iranian-rials-end-of-july-20260626151916139") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YTM45JBTC4",
"slug": "usd-x-iranian-rials-end-of-july-20260626151916139",
"question": "Will the USD/Iranian rial exchange rate reach a specified level by the end of July?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"currency-exchange",
"usd-irr",
"iran",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 39413,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 65,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "bonbast.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bonbast.com",
"url": "https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bonbast",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}