Will Vance announce he won't run for President in 2028 this year? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | — | $16K | C | 0x821413…c932 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from JD Vance or his official representatives from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/vance-announces-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2028-this-year/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/vance-announces-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2028-this-year |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("vance-announces-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2028-this-year") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Q16SDF41Z3",
"slug": "vance-announces-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2028-this-year",
"question": "Will Vance announce he won't run for President in 2028 this year?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"2028-presidential-race",
"vance-jd",
"political-announcements",
"us-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15768,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from JD Vance or his official representatives",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}