Variational FDV one day after launch [ resolves 2028-01-01 (577D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $100,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 98.6% | $2.0K | $11K | C | 0xcb0435…774f | ||
| ≥ $200,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 94.0% | $1.7K | $21K | C | 0x195b73…2ca6 | ||
| ≥ $300,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 89.0% | $6.4K | $197K | C | 0x1aabd7…6013 | ||
| ≥ $500,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 70.0% | $7.4K | $678K | C | 0x76e7f7…b1a7 | ||
| ≥ $800,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 42.0% | $8.8K | $173K | C | 0xbd549c…4094 | ||
| ≥ $1,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 26.0% | $3.0K | $110K | C | 0x88b282…3747 | ||
| ≥ $2,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 12.9% | $3.8K | $70K | C | 0x90452e…32a1 | ||
| ≥ $3,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 7.4% | — | $40K | C | 0x99bee2…364d | ||
| ≥ $4,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 2.1% | $2.4K | $104K | C | 0x81f132…4987 | ||
| ≥ $5,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 2.6% | $13 | $60K | C | 0xf50825…bbd0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DF3VMD05V6",
"slug": "variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
"question": "Variational FDV one day after launch",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"token-launch",
"fdv-valuation",
"variational",
"2028"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1464689,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}